Second Annual EA Stock Picking Contest

[erik_kosberg]

Here’s the scoop: pick 1–10 stocks that you think will do well in 2003. Early in January of 2004, I’ll check everyone’s picks and post the results. Your stocks will get equal weighting; if you choose 4 stocks that have year-long returns of +20%, +5%, -10% and +15%, your score will be +7.5%. Results will be calculated from the last trading day of 2002 to the last trading day of 2003. The winner gets everlasting fame or something equally worthless.

All picks must be posted to this thread by 11:59 PM EST, January 5th, 2003.

All stocks must trade on the New York Stock Exchange, American Stock Exchange or NASDAQ National Market (e.g., not NASDAQ Bulletin Board, Vancouver Stock Exchange, etc.).

If your company is 100% acquired by another company or goes private during 2003, it’s eliminated from your list, as if you did not choose it at all, so it’s a good idea to pick at least two stocks. If your company files for bankruptcy but is still trading somewhere at the end of the year (even on NasdaqBB), you’re stuck with it even if it’s down by 99.9%.

You must provide the name of the company or companies whose stock you’re picking, their ticker symbols, a brief description of the company, and the reason(s) for your picks.

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this thread shall be construed as investment advice and anyone who would make investments based on what they read on a discussion board would deserve to lose the shirt off their back. Fnord.

[brian_igo]

All right!

ChevronTexaco (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and British Petroleum (BP): I'm listing these as hedge stocks. War tensions (or war itself) will keep crude prices high and that will send oil company profits skyrocketing. Profits and stability could be very attractive for investors in an unstable market.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW): At 3.11 close on 12/31 this is my pick for a penny stock. I don't expect a rebound in the server market, but I like where they are headed with StarOffice and the recent court ruling in their case against Microsoft will generate returns on Java.

Southwest Airlines (LUV):This stock has taken a beating just because its an airline. If you look at the fundamentals this is a great company. Its profitable, has good relationships with its unions, and is handling the transition from Herb Kelleher's leadership better than anyone hoped. It might not be a big gainer in a year, but I think it will hold its own and would make an excellent long-term hold.

Wal Mart (WMT): I don't know if Wal Mart can sustain its growth in same-store sales, but it has cash to continue its expansion and a formula for profitability no one else in the retail sector can match.

Intel (INT): Feels funny to be a cheerleader for Intel, but at 15.57 this stock is phenomenally undervalued. They've remained profitable throughout the tech meltdown, they have a lot of cash and good management, and they have genuinely good products in the pipeline for 2003. The best reason to buy them now is they are thisclose to recapturing their monopoly of the processor market. AMD missed product launches in 2002, was caught with tons of excess inventory and bled cash at every quarter. They now have to get the Hammer line out and triple their average selling price just to survive.

Anheuser Bush (BUD): This you can carve in stone: There will be no shortage of reasons to reach for a beer in 2003.



Brian

[pageclot[$]]

I'll give it another shot!

My strategy, such as it is, is to concentrate on dividend-heavy stocks, under the assumption that in a stock slide, these stocks will act more like bonds than like other stocks. (Don't worry, I took a finance course or two, so I know there's some deep flaws in this logic.)

So anyway:

1) Telus (NYSE: TU). They make and market cellphones, including a nifty cellphone/pager/radiophone type thing that selected people in our company use. A repeat from my picks last year. It can only go down so far, I figure.

2) Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS) One of the most business-friendly banks in Canada, they're pretty aggressive about going after business. They're also dividend-friendly.

3) BCE Inc. (NYSE: BCE). Bell Canada is getting really good at getting back customers. They have their fingers in just about every pie; cellphones, satellite TV, land lines, long distance. They consistently lose customers, and consistently win them back with special deals.

4) Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: BCM). They are one of the big 5 banks in Canada. Though I have it from a good source that Canadian banks are woefully inefficient compared to their American counterparts, I have it from the same source that the prospects of good competition up here in the banking field in the next year are somewhere between slim and none, approaching none. Low P/E (compared to technology companies), and heck, I got my first credit card from them about 20 years ago. Call it nostalgia.

An all-Canadian lineup.

P

[jgibson2[$]]

My strategy is to go for stocks with some room to move - IOW, not too pricey. After all, this IS a percentage improvement contest.

1. Comcast - CMCSK I have my cable service through them, as well as my cable modem service. They sent competent technicians to my house, their dial-up help folks don't laugh at you when you make really stupid mistakes (and they know how to tell you what you've done), AND when I mistakenly sent my e-payment of the bill to the wrong account number, they eventually figured out where it really should have been posted. 3 for 3 and expanding rapidly.

2. Verisign - VRSN - because I can't seem to go anywhere online without stumbling across it.

3. Smithfield foods - SFD - multinational pork producer. I don't buy many of their products, but they're EVERYWHERE.

4. NVIDIA - NVDA - because my son likes it, and because I don't think they can go much lower.

5. Safeway - SWY - because I find myself shopping there more and more often. Service and quality of their products are improving.

6. McCormick - MKC - hey, you've gotta eat - and they're local.

[AuntieEmma[$]]

I'm going to roll over my picks from last year: Peet's Coffee, Safeway, and Texas Instruments, for pretty much the same reasons.

I just saw Peet's beans on a grocery store shelf today for the first time. I think that's good -- selling through grocery stores is a new thing for them. They were priced a bit higher there than the Starbuck's beans were, though, which I don't think is such a great idea. In any case, I still think, as I did last year, that they're a good company with a great product and a sensible, sane plan for growth.

Safeway -- I share this pick with Judy and I guess I'm competing, with this pick, against Brian, because Safeway and Wal Mart seem to be in direct competition with each other. In fact, one of the reasons given for Safeway's 40+ % decline (!) this year was that people are turning to Wal Mart more for their grocery shopping. I'm betting, though, that Safeway is going to recover this year from what had been an unprecedented drop. And I like Safeway stores myself. So there.

Texas Instruments -- Same thing as last year. If tech recovers, Texas Instruments will be a good one to have. Solid, well-run company.

I'm adding one more:

Genentech:

Biotechnology gets the benefit in 2003 of being compared against a low benchmark after being uncharacteristically pummeled last year.

One thing working in the sector's favor this year is the record number of drugs in the final stage of testing. Getting federal approval for a good number of the new medications would provide a much-needed psychological boost for investors, according to Tom Dietz, an analyst for Pacific Growth Equities.

"2003 and 2004 are transition years," he said. "Potentially, you could double the number of companies that have approved products and that could open the industry up to a new kind of investor."

Small biotech companies have been particularly wounded by the industry's downturn. Like many firms these days, they have been unable to get venture capital funding. Consequently, many are running out of money.

Meanwhile, larger companies, especially the few that generally turn a profit such as Genentech and Gilead Sciences, are expected to have a brighter future in 2003.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...&type=business

So that's:

SWY
PEET
TXN
DNA

[erik_kosberg]

Yeah, I know, investments should be broadly diversified (in real life, I have a significant portion of my investments in an S&P 500 fund and in a “total market” fund). But since this isn’t the real world, I’m going to put all of my eggs in the one proverbial basket. On the assumptions that the U.S. dollar is in bigger trouble than most people think and that the fundamentals of the metals markets are more bullish than most people think, I’m going for the gold. And the silver. My two real-life favorites (DROOY and SSRI) don’t meet the rules of this game, so I’m instead choosing four other stocks:

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), a Canadian gold miner.
Gold Fields Limited (GFI) and
Harmony (HMY), South African gold miners.
Pan-American Silver (PAAS), a silver miner partially owned by a guy named Bill Gates.

[Joubert[$]]

Bummer. Missed the deadline. Good luck, everyone.

I'll play with my retirement money.

[amykhar]

I am not going to play simply for the fact that whatever stock I pick will tank and I refuse to be the cause of others' misfortunes.

Amy

[lynnzop[$]]

Originally posted by brian_igo
Anheuser Bush (BUD): This you can carve in stone: There will be no shortage of reasons to reach for a beer in 2003.



Brian

Funny. I've been thinking about rolling around some stock money out of something that's not doing too well and probably won't and into something that has a brighter future.

After the Superbowl, BUD popped into my brain. Thought I'd check back here and see if anyone else thought so too.



Lynn
who might just call the stinking broker