Third Annual EA Stock Picking Contest

[erik_kosberg]

Here’s the scoop: pick 1–12 stocks that you think will do well in 2004. Early in January of 2005, I’ll check everyone’s picks and post the results. Your stocks will get equal weighting; if you choose 4 stocks that have year-long returns of +20%, +5%, -10% and +15%, your score will be +7.5%. Results will be calculated from the last trading day of 2003 to the last trading day of 2004. The winner gets everlasting fame or something equally worthless.

All picks must be posted to this thread by 11:59 PM EST, December 31, 2003.

All stocks must have a quote available at finance.yahoo.com in U.S. dollars (expanding the pool of possible picks from earlier EA stock-picking contests, NASDAQ SC, Bulletin Board, and Pink Sheet stocks are now fair game). If you go here and pick from the U.S. and Canada list (NOT the World Markets pull-down option) and can find a quote in U.S. dollars, you’re good to go. Stocks traded in both the U.S. and Canada are okay but be sure to specify the U.S. dollar ticker symbol (e.g., NT rather than NT.TO)

If your company is 100% acquired by another company or goes private during 2003, it’s eliminated from your list, as if you did not choose it at all, so it’s a good idea to pick at least two stocks. If your company files for bankruptcy but is still trading somewhere at the end of the year, you’re stuck with it even if it’s down by 99.9%.

You must provide the name of the company or companies whose stock you’re picking, their ticker symbols, a brief description of the company, and the reason(s) for your picks.

Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this thread shall be construed as investment advice and anyone who would make investments based on what they read on a discussion board would deserve to lose the shirt off their back. Fnord.

[poseidon]

I'll stick with Symantec, SYMC on the NASDAQ. If you have any clue what Norton AntiVirus is, then you know who Symantec is.

My second stock (I'll take only two this year, please) is Rambus, RMBS -- basically they make memory chips. Watch for this stock to take off in February.

[mnehr]

Convergys Co. (CVG) as they provide billing platforms to most of the major wireless companies including Verizon, Cingular, Sprint, Alltel, and US Cellular. They also have billing systems available for DSL and other high speed internet providers. Plus they sign my paychecks.

I am long on Alltel (AT) as they have been continuously praised as one of the only telecom that consistently make a profit and pay dividends. AT has made two major transactions this year, spinning off their non-telecom units and giving them a major influx of cash that they are bound to do something with.

I am with Halliburton (HAL) not because of all the VP connection BS but because frankly, they are the only company that has any real experience in oil field recovery systems and services needed through out the world. I have a feeling next year will be good for them as the rebuilding through out the Middle East picks up.

I also like Manpower (MAN) for the fact that everyone predicts that employment will take off next year. Employment agencies such as Manpower has lately been used by more and more companies to handle hiring and pre-screening. I also see a lot of people who have been hold-outs riding on their unemployment finally deciding to jump back into the market before the train leaves.

Finally I see Platts Energy Co (PPL) as breaking new ground this year in the release of Biological Diesel, specifically through out the EU, but also here in the US. PPL has found ways create Diesel fuel from soybeans at just as high a rate as drilling production. All the tests look good and they have successfully rolled out a few stations and consumer tests in the US and EU.

As a side note I am long on the Dollar. I expected the Euro to pick up the past few years as countries who traditionally hedged their economy against the dollar looked for ways to diversify. As the EU constitution breaks down and as the total production numbers come in I believe we will see movement back into the Dollar for continued stability. I also see the Yen moving up against the Euro.

I am short on the following,:
Nextel NXTL- Their unique walkie-talkie offering is not unique any more with Verizon, Sprint, and Alltel all coming out with the same product. That, along with WNP will leave them in the cold. Even NASCAR sponsorship cannot pull them out of next year’s customer migration.
GE- Sorry GE but your lack of innovation in the manufacturing field is leaving you behind. Your media ventures (MSNBC) are going south faster than a goose with a tailwind.
Disney DIS- They have been slowly alienating their biggest base, families with kids. They will need to pull off some new Snow Whites to get out of this slump.

[erik_kosberg]

You can make money shorting in the real world but not in this contest.

FWIW, I think that GE is a very overrated company and in addition to the weaknesses that you pointed out, their GE Capital business faces some tough times ahead IMHO.

[poseidon]

Matthew,

Watch Haliburton. My NAIC group used to own the stock. We sold it simply because it just didn't perform, plus like anything else in that arena, it is a very cyclical (seasonal) stock. Hopefully, you'll catch it on the upswing.

Jeff

[mnehr]

poseidon said

I'll stick with Symantec, SYMC on the NASDAQ. If you have any clue what Norton AntiVirus is, then you know who Symantec is.

My second stock (I'll take only two this year, please) is Rambus, RMBS -- basically they make memory chips. Watch for this stock to take off in February.

Jeff, I am so agreeing with SYMC, espcially after seeing the need for their product this year.

[mnehr]

poseidon said

Matthew,

Watch Haliburton. My NAIC group used to own the stock. We sold it simply because it just didn't perform, plus like anything else in that arena, it is a very cyclical (seasonal) stock. Hopefully, you'll catch it on the upswing.

Jeff

I believe as they get world contracts their seasonal roadblocks will go away. Not just in the Middle East are they getting contracts but the talks are going on in South America as well.

[poseidon]

I hope that you're right. My father still owns some Haliburton shares.

[erik_kosberg]

Of my 2003 picks, PAAS did the best so I’m repeating it for 2004. Three more silver picks:
Silver Standard (SSRI)
Western Silver (WTZ)
Sterling Mining (SRLM.PK)

And four for gold (FWIW, I think that the stealth bull market for metal stocks has a long way to go):
Golden Phoenix (GPXM.OB) a strong presence in Nevada
NovaGold Resources (NG), potentially massive deposits in Alaska
Durban Roodepoort Deep (DROOY), its stock had a rough year in 2003 mostly due to the strength in the S.A. Rand
My most speculative metals pick is Magnum d'Or Resources (MAGR.OB), an exploration-stage company with interesting property in Mongolia.

I’ll hedge my bets this year with four non-mining picks:
Computer-game company Bam Entertainment: BFUN
A biotech company(Geron) with promising oncology developments: GERN
A Nanotechnology/Defense company, Global Nanospace USGA.OB
XM Satellite Radio Holdings (XMSR)

[danoines]

Dan's 10 NYSE picks, putting the dartboard analysis technique to the test;

BCC - Boise Cascade - Paper products
CKC - Collins & Aikman - Auto & truck parts
CYT - Cytec Industries - Chemical manufacturing
ELX - Emulex - Computer storage devices
GE - General Electric - Mediocre electronic equipment, passé televised comedy

MCY - Mercury General - Insurance
NOC - Northrup Grumman - Aerospace & Defense
JOE - The St. Joe Co - Real estate
TY - Tri-Continental - Financial services
WBS - Webster Financial - S&Ls/Savings banks

May the unpredictable forces of random chaos lead these stocks to outperform the rest or at least break even. (Historical note: The group gained an average of +22% between 12/21/02 and 12/21/03. The only decliner was Northrup Grumman by -3.4%)

[AuntieEmma[$]]

Random stock picks! That's cool. Anyone remember the site where they had an actual chimpanzee (so they said) throw darts at the stock page? Chimp did pretty good, as I recall.

[danoines]

Classes of third graders have the edge over professional chart watchers and the almighty dartboard too.

[erik_kosberg]

“Clear? Huh! Why a four-year-old child could understand this report! Run out and find me a four-year-old child, I can't make head or tail of it.”
— Rufus T. Firefly (Groucho Marx) in Duck Soup

[AuntieEmma[$]]

Uh oh. Just realized EA is going to shut down, and I haven't made my picks yet. Gotta think fast ...

So ... I guess I'm going to roll over all my previous picks (Safeway, Texas Instruments, Peets Coffee, and Genentech) even though Safeway is not doing well, and Genentech's stock has risen into the bubble range. Why? Because I'm a packrat and I hate to let things go.

Then, to add insult to injury, I'm going to add even more biotech. I'm taking two picks, Geron and Scios, from a column I read in this Sunday's paper. The author isn't a stock-market writer -- he gives advice about careers -- so I guess you could ask, what does he know? On the other hand, what does anybody know?

(Oops -- just looked up Scios, and it turns out it was bought by Johnson & Johnson and is no longer traded on its own. So Johnson & Johnson it is.)

So ...

SWY
PEET
DNA
TXN
GERN
JNJ

Editing to add -- I was just looking over this thread, and I saw Erik also picked Geron. Go, Geron! (See, if this was real life, all this demand for the stock would have already pushed its price up!)

[Joubert[$]]

I had a series of great picks with witty comments attached to all and lost my connection. See, there is a God. She spared you from reading my picks. I'll just toss out the symbols now and let you guys berate me on your own.

Joubert's Picks

VLGC
RATE
MRK
HMC
MSFT
TSN

[erik_kosberg]

Our starting prices for the year:

[Redlass]

Ack! I missed the deadline. Does that mean I can't join? Could I get an extension until the end of today? My only excuse is that I've been mostly off-line for the past three weeks. But I could have picks together by the end of the day.

[erik_kosberg]

What good are rules if they can’t be broken? !notworthy

[erik_kosberg]

Yes folks, it’s a one-time extension. If anyone else wants to join in, NOW is the time. Have your picks posted here by 11:59 PM EST tonight. After that, the door shuts.

[Redlass]

Thank you, thank you, thank you!!

I just joined an investment club a few months ago and we're just starting to learn all kinds of stuff. So I'm excited about doing this too.

[brian_igo]

Taking a pass this time. Unless you like bond funds I think this is going to be a much tougher year to pick a twelve-month winner.

[Redlass]

OK, sorry for being late. Here are my freshman picks:

AVP
KKD
SCHL
CSCO
HAS
WAIN
TUP
DIS
PIXR
COHR

Now I just need to look up the Dec. 31 prices. Is it OK if I submit that tomorrow?