Blair to Announce Iraq Withdrawal Plan

[erik_kosberg]

AP and Daily Telegraph versions of the story.

I guess that makes Blair a cowardly cut-and-run surrender monkey.

[AuntieEmma[$]]

Guess we'll be drinking Freedom Breakfast Tea from now on.

[mjfrombuffalo[$]]

With our fresh-from-the-toaster Thomas' Freedom Muffins.

[wivabef]

We have a Thomas' bakery in Maryland outside of Frederick.

I don't know why I felt the need to share that...it just popped up.

[hadassahchana[$]]

Huh? Even the mil blogs I read haven't said anything at all negative about the Brits leaving. In fact, the most common reaction is to post thanks and appreciation for them showing up in the first place. Of course, that doesn't fit your notion of how conservatives think...

[erik_kosberg]

It's being spun as evidence of success in Iraq. Cool. If Bush wants to declare victory and leave, he'll have my full support, thanks, and appreciation.

"Statements from the White House press secretary, Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - all traveling - attempted to put a good face on the decision announced in London by British Prime Minister Tony Blair." That about says it all.

A valid question:

...one of the arguments made by Cheney in the interview (and others such as John Howard) is that the British withdrawal is good news because it reflects improvement in the situation in the South. Well, if this is the case, then why aren't the British troops being moved to where they are needed instead of being withdrawn? Why is nobody asking this question?"

[erik_kosberg]

FWIW, Juan Cole's analysis:
"Vice President Cheney says the British are leaving southern Iraq because things are going so well. In the real world, Basra is a mess."

[pippadaisy[$]]

Hey, they are deploying Prince Harry. It's gotta be safe, right?

[erik_kosberg]

On one of the networks (CBS yesterday?), they mentioned that at least some Brits were concerned about a "worst-case scenario" like a Prince Harry beheading video. The talking head pointed out that once in the field, he'd look like any other soldier (albeit with WALES stiched to his helmet). Operational security is always important but, whoa, I would hate to be the officer in charge of his unit.

As to Prince Richard, "The man is simply too big a fool to hold any job of responsibility in the national government."

[erik_kosberg]

"Revealed: The true extent of Britain's failure in Basra"

And remember, the British contolled south has always been seen as MUCH more of a success story that parts of Iraq where the Americans are.

We are so totally hosed. Thank you, George W. Bush.

[brian_igo]

hadassahchana said

Huh? Even the mil blogs I read haven't said anything at all negative about the Brits leaving. In fact, the most common reaction is to post thanks and appreciation for them showing up in the first place. Of course, that doesn't fit your notion of how conservatives think...

I personally try to avoid contemplating how conservatives think unless I have a large ripper in hand...

Here is report issued by the State Department two months ago on the security situation in Iraq. Go down to the bottom of page 31 and you'll find a color-coded provincial map indicating where each province is on the path to Iraqi control, as of November 1, 2006. Most provinces, including Baghdad province, were rated to be "partially ready for transition". Only two provinces were rated as "Not ready for transition", which since partial readiness was an option I'm going to read as "Not ready for any level of transition", but I could be a little off.

Anyway, only two provinces received this lowest rating: Anbar province, where Sunni militias have thwarted US and Iraqi national government control for the last five years, and Basarah province - yeah, that Basarah province. The same one Cheney was claiming this week was, in fact, going so well that the Brits could leave.

Put it this way. As low as the level of Iraqi government control was in Baghdad last November, according to our State Department in Basarah it was worse.

"Turning Basarah over to Iraqi control" means surrendering Basarah to Sadr's Madhi Army, who have dominated in southern Iraq since mid-2004. This is a critical development for a couple of reasons. First, because Basarah has Iraq's only seaport the province is as important to controlling the wealth of the country as controlling the oil cities like Kirkuk. Second, and of much, much greater importance for the US military mission, all roads to Kuwait literally run through Basarah. As a practical point I don't think the current British contingent of 7,000 troops could keep our supply lines open if the shit hits the fan, but the British drawdown does make the situation that much more dangerous. (And that much less likely we will make an offensive against the Madhi Army in Baghdad.)

Oh, and did anyone else notice where the Brits are increasing their troop strength?

1,000 fresh troops set to shift balance to Afghanistan from Iraq

By Stephen Fidler, Daniel Dombey and Christopher Adams
Published: February 24 2007 02:00 | Last updated: February 24 2007 02:00


The UK said yesterday it planned to send more troops to southern Afghanistan, days after it announ-ced plans to cut troop numbers in Iraq.

The announcements taken together mean that by later this year Britain will have more troops in Afghanistan than in Iraq. Tony Blair said this week the contingent in Iraq would fall in the coming months to about 5,500, from 7,100 now.

Des Browne, the defence secretary, said last night the UK would boost its contingent in southern Afghanistan, without giving numbers. Officials said 1,000-1,500 highly mobile troops were likely to be sent, along with supporting equipment.

[wivabef]

brian_igo said

Oh, and did anyone else notice where the Brits are increasing their troop strength?

Darn. Does that mean we have to go back to calling English Muffins "English Muffins?"

[erik_kosberg]

Informed Comment

Guerrilla groups in South Iraq are saying that they will attempt to capture Prince Harry and use him to release imprisoned colleagues when he deploys to Basra. This article misidentifies the groups. Thar Allah is not an "Iranian-backed Sunni" group (it is rather Shiite), and I can't find any evidence that the Malik ibn al-Ashtar Brigade is Mahdi Army.

[erik_kosberg]

"British army reconsiders sending Prince Harry to Iraq"

[erik_kosberg]

Now Harry is definitely going to Iraq. Maybe. But please stop speculating about whether it's a yes, no, or a maybe.

[erik_kosberg]

The story changes yet again. As of today, "Prince Harry not to serve in Iraq"

[erik_kosberg]

British military sparks US fears of losing Basra - World - smh.com.au

Previously, the Americans would have listened carefully, deferring to their British colleagues' long experience in Northern Ireland. This time, however, eyes simply rolled.

[erik_kosberg]

"Basra attacks down 90% since British troops left"

Gosh, who'd have thunk it.