Please Choose A Number

**drmomentum**[$] · #1 03-17-2002, 10:33 PM

Please choose a number, but do not post in the thread yet. I will post an explanation after a sufficient number of people have voted in the poll.

Thank you.

-JP

magenta321 · #2 03-17-2002, 11:08 PM

How many votes are enough? I voted fifteen times already, just to make sure my vote counted.

Just kidding.

Go Number ________!!!! Go Number __________!!!

**drmomentum**[$] · #3 03-17-2002, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by magenta321
How many votes are enough? I voted fifteen times already, just to make sure my vote counted.

Vote early and often, eh?

Well, since I don't know how many people are paying attention, I'll wait until it looks like the voting has dropped off. I figure that there is probably a surge of EA traffic on Monday morning, but the voting will prabably taper quickly after that. Not long.

-JP

#4 03-18-2002, 12:24 AM

No pi?

wivabef · #5 03-18-2002, 01:41 PM

Damned butterfly ballots. I think I voted for Buchanan/Hitler by mistake.

Elyzabeth
Who was never very good at following directions.

**drmomentum**[$] · #6 03-18-2002, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by file13
No pi?

You'll have to find an acceptable slot with one of the integers offered.

I probably would have had to include pi if I had posted the poll a few days earlier on 3/14 (It was "pi day" at the local high school where we are doing our software/curriculum testing).

-JP

**mjfrombuffalo**[$] · #7 03-18-2002, 04:16 PM

what if my number isn't on the list? had to go with my second favorite - phooey.

mj

**mjfrombuffalo**[$] · #8 03-18-2002, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by file13
No pi?

mmmmmmm, pie.... :lick:

mj
who shouldn't have given up sweets for Lent

magenta321 · #9 03-18-2002, 04:51 PM

C'mon, we got 20 votes!!!! Let the kitty out of the sack.

My number is in second place right now. Perhaps we should wait until my number is in first place. Or maybe we should wait until my number is in last place, to show I am independantly minded.

HEY! Is this a test to see if we are so bored that we will vote in polls about nothing, or start conversations about nothing? :fire:

**drmomentum**[$] · #10 03-18-2002, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by magenta321
C'mon, we got 20 votes!!!! Let the kitty out of the sack.

...

HEY! Is this a test to see if we are so bored that we will vote in polls about nothing, or start conversations about nothing? :fire:

Sorry - I took your mention of which number you chose out of the message, just in case anyone would be swayed by it. I'll put the text back in after I reveal what is going on.

I will do that tomorrow. You'll have to occupy yourself with some Psychobabble until then.

-JP

magenta321 · #11 03-18-2002, 05:08 PM

I didn't tell what number I voted for.

I just said my number was coming in X place.

Sorry, didn't mean to harm your experiment in any way.

And I have to wait until tomarrow? Doh!

**theworm**[$] · #12 03-18-2002, 05:12 PM

I have no idea what you're doing here, but I need to find out. I voted before I looked at the results (didn't want to be swayed by other votes). Then I was amazed by the results. Hurry - tell us - what's it about?

**drmomentum**[$] · #13 03-18-2002, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by magenta321
I didn't tell what number I voted for. I just said my number was coming in X place. Sorry, didn't mean to harm your experiment in any way.

And I have to wait until tomarrow? Doh!

No worries!

You haven't harmed anything. All will be revealed tomorrow.

-JP

sleeper54 · #14 03-18-2002, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by mjfrombuffalo
what if my number isn't on the list? had to go with my second favorite - phooey.

mj

You have a "second" favorite number...???

I don't even have a 'first' favorite...although I do like pie....:-)

sleeper / tom

quasar · #15 03-18-2002, 08:46 PM

Forget Pi. I want e!

Janice

**drmomentum**[$] · #16 03-19-2002, 01:25 AM

Okay - it's tomorrow.

Just before I started this thread, I sent a message to Amy, the contents of which began like this:

Quote:

The Number
I am going to post a poll in the games forum (called "Please Choose A Number"), but I need to send this prediction to you first.

I am predicting that the majority will choose "3"

I told Amy that this was "to keep me honest." So you can ask her if you want to know whether I was honest or not.

The remainder of the message explains why I made the prediction, and I'll give you the explanation now.

A while back (I can't remember exactly where) I came across a "trick" which told me to put the following numbers on a piece of paper:

1 2 3 4

and to write "3" on the back of the paper. I was instructed to present the paper to people and say "choose a number." Then, when they chose their number I was to reveal to them the number on the back of the paper. I was told that nearly everyone chooses "3."

I wanted to tell you all about it, but I thought a demonstration might be a little more fun. I have done this "trick" to a number of people and in nearly every case the outcome is "3." The poll is not
exactly the same as the IRL version because this is meant to just be sprung on people. In the poll, people were able to "view results" before voting.

As with any good trick, you want to be a little bit vague about what you are doing. Don't come out and say "I am going to predict which number you will choose." I think that will tend to destabilize the results.

Notice that the majority of people chose 3 in the poll. That's more than twice as many as chose the next most popular, 4. It's around 50% of the results. In my experience, more people choose "3" on the paper. And the more credulous ones are amazed. If nothing else, it gives you a temporary aura of power - use it for good rather than evil, please.

If you get a chance, try it out for yourself. Write the numbers down on paper, and deliver the question as flatly as possible. If it doesn't work, just shrug it off. Better still, do like the stage hypnotists do and blame it on the person. "You chose wrong! You have a very poor capacity for extrasensory perception."

If you do try it, let me know the results.

Kinda cool, eh?
-JP

sleeper54 · #17 03-19-2002, 01:43 AM

D*mn!...just a cheap parlor trick...???

I was expecting/hoping for something 'momentous' like number of meals someone had to cook, or weeks of vacation in the south of France, or, gosh, I don't now, something...:-(

I feel so used...

sleeper54 / tom - "I voted for #4 !!'

**taurusmoon** · #18 03-19-2002, 08:23 AM

I've seen a variation on this: where on the back of the slip of paper is written "all schmucks pick three."

Of course, even knowing this, I picked three. I always do. My birthday is on the third of the month.

My mother's birthday was on the fourth. She always picked four.

My father's birthday is on the sixth. He always picked seven. Go figure.

Sara

**mjfrombuffalo**[$] · #19 03-19-2002, 10:19 AM

I wanted to pick seven, but went with 3 when 7 wasn't a choice.

Anyone know how/why this works?

mj

**lynnzop**[$] · #20 03-19-2002, 10:44 AM

And the Lord said:
Thou shalt lobbest the Holy Hand Grenade on the count of Three....
Three being the number...
And the number shall be three...
Two being the number only whenst followed directly by three...
Four being one too many...
And Five being RIGHT OUT.....

or something like that.

Lynn
3Day walker....could that have been the reason for her choice?

theeye · #21 03-19-2002, 10:48 AM

Human beings have a distorted idea of what "random" actually means. When asked to pick a number, people tend to want to pick a "random" number. So they'll avoid the end points, because they're not "random" (they're "special"). And they'll start their selection process at 1.

So I think the (unconscious) process goes like this:

1: That's not random at all.
2: That's pretty close to the not-random #1.
3: Well, if I don't pick this one, I'll be stuck with #4, which isn't random at all.

And so they end up with #3.

A friend of mine who used to work for the Princeton Review (an SAT training outfit) told me that statistical analysis of the distribution of correct answers on the multiple choice questions also showed a distinct preference for certain choices. I believe they were also the "middle" choices. They used to have a series of interesting techniques they taught students for enhanced guessing -- the final step would be to choose "C" over "A" if those were the remaining candidate answers.

Redlass · #22 03-19-2002, 11:45 AM

That makes sense--when I'm writing test questions I have to force myself to make sure there are as many a and d answers as there are b and c (and they go into a test bank, so it isn't as if the actual test as equal amounts of each answer).

JP--I have to confess I cheated. My first thought upon reading the question was 3, but then I picked my second thought (2), 'cause I had heard of a similar trick before and wondered if that's what you were doing. So I was stubborn.