Maverick McCain tamed

wivabef · #1 03-12-2006, 10:08 PM

Quote:

The Arizona senator, who often touts his maverick credentials, had one message this weekend at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference (SRLC) in Memphis. And it's a simple one: I'm with the president. McCain knows that if he wants to win the White House, he needs the party's base.

The SRLC is the first major gathering of 2008 Republican presidential hopefuls, and it’s also the site of the first major straw poll of White House contenders. In a move that might impress Machiavelli himself, McCain told delegates to the conference not to vote for him.

I had a dream...

sigh

brian_igo · #2 03-12-2006, 11:00 PM

I've been following this for a while now on the progressive blogs, Elyzabeth. I was hoping it was their bias coming through, that's why I didn't say anything about it here. But McCain has been making a lot of cooing noises to the GOP establishment, particularly the social conservatives, since before the first of the year.

The good news is, I think this is pure political posturing by McCain, and maybe the most brilliant I've ever seen. There are a lot of symptoms of what is wrong with the GOP right now, but I haven't heard anyone talking about the problem. That problem is a vaccum of effective leadership, and McCain is seeing it and moving on it.

Right now this party needs someone who can reassure what they've stood for and what they've done. This is a party that is in real danger of coming apart at the seams. McCain's call to cast a meaningless and unspecified vote of support for Bush gives Republicans something to rally around at a time when they don't have a vision going forward, and likely won't for a long time. (We haven't even scratched the surface on the Abramoff scandal.)

There's another reason working behind McCain's behavior in Memphis. How to put this...he laid the wood to Bill Frist - hard. Frist has had the most bungled and mismanaged presidential effort I can remember. In less than two years he has managed to alienate social conservatives with his flip-flops on stem cell research (the problem with getting in bed with extremists is they don't allow any moderation), moderates on his idiotic video diagnosis of Terry Schaivo, hardcore R's for not using the nuclear option, and everyone else with his unwillingness to be really forthcoming about the allegations of insider trading.

I don't think a big win in the SRLC straw poll could have saved his campaign, but he absolutely had to have a clear victory to retain any semblance of viability among the GOP state workers and leaders who are so critical at this stage of a presidential campaign. Frist was working the SRLC delegates hard, especially the majority of the total delegates who came from Tennessee.

By contrast, McCain didn't have to win in a southern straw poll. He had nothing to lose and a lot to gain by giving disaffected delegates who were being pressured by Frist something to vote for, and that's what they did. Frist won the straw poll but pulled in just 37% of the delegates. More than 40% of the Tennessee delegation didn't vote for him. This didn't kill his campaign but it did kill any momentum Frist was hoping to get out of the Memphis meeting.

McCain has learned he needs to win the support of the GOP establishment before he can hope to win the nomination. I see him doing this by making himself to be the only viable chance to keep the party in power. When he gets that power, if he gets that power, we'll see if he reshapes the GOP or if they reshaped him.

Brian

brian_igo · #3 03-12-2006, 11:05 PM

By the way, I think the big story to come out of Memphis was Sam Brownback finishing dead last among the candidates who came to the conference. Brownback has impeccable bona fides among social conservatives and he should have done much better among southern and midwestern GOP delegates. Going in I would have picked Brownback to finish ahead of McCain in this contest.

BTW2 - did you see that Rudy only got 1.1% of the first place votes but did ten times better as the second choice? Looks to me like a lot of the delegates are looking for a reason to support him. Rudy could be the Cuomo of the 08 race.

wivabef · #4 03-12-2006, 11:15 PM

Quote:

brian_igo said

The good news is, I think this is pure political posturing by McCain, and maybe the most brilliant I've ever seen. There are a lot of symptoms of what is wrong with the GOP right now, but I haven't heard anyone talking about the problem. That problem is a vaccum of effective leadership, and McCain is seeing it and moving on it.

Brian

All very valid, and kind to my one last link to my common sense conservative past, but I still feel ickified.

I know it is what is necessary, but my gleeful little heart with such faith in someone I deemed as a true heart and brave heart has been broken.

The game playing (I experienced one of the best...Lee Atwater...in action) is what made me run from DC back in 1989. That, and three or four drive-by shootings within 5 blocks of my apartment.

wivabef · #5 03-12-2006, 11:18 PM

Quote:

brian_igo said

By the way, I think the big story to come out of Memphis was Sam Brownback finishing dead last among the candidates who came to the conference. Brownback has impeccable bona fides among social conservatives and he should have done much better among southern and midwestern GOP delegates. Going in I would have picked Brownback to finish ahead of McCain in this contest.

BTW2 - did you see that Rudy only got 1.1% of the first place votes but did ten times better as the second choice? Looks to me like a lot of the delegates are looking for a reason to support him. Rudy could be the Cuomo of the 08 race.

I really don't put much stake in straw polls, as they are just a game they play at these gatherings that is used as a ploy to get the media to care which makes the media report on it. It's about as scientific as an O-Reilly poll. Like you said, of course Frist was going to win. The shocker was he only got 42% of the vote in his home state with a fist full of cronies pulling straws.

Frist was no doubt sweating bullets going in...the rest of the candidates probably didn't break a sweat whatsoever.

frazzledspice · #6 03-13-2006, 02:03 PM

This meeting took place in Tennessee, Frist's home state. It's natural he won.

John McCain isn't Rudy Guiliani. He's out of the mainstream, but not so far out that he wouldn't be considered for the nomination.

My analysis is this: The harder Republicans perceive the 2008 race will be, the more likely they will be to try to find someone who will have broad appeal among independents.

The same is probably true for the Democrats.

Of course I think there are many in the Republican Party who would love to see an ordained evangelical minister like Governor Huckabee as their candidate, but they want to see a winner more, and will do what they have to do to win.

That's why (hopefully) McCain has a chance.

**AuntieEmma**[$] · #7 03-13-2006, 02:47 PM

I guess they all have to kiss up, if they want a chance at running as a Republican. I remember I just about choked when Giuliani, in his Republican convention speech, said that the first thing he said on 9/11 after the planes hit the towers was, "Thank God George Bush is our president." That's just about the most ridiculous pandering I've ever heard.

Anyway, I can't say I'm disillusioned about McCain because I've never been particularly illusioned about him in the first place.

BTW, speaking of Giuliani, I've been reading something which isn't about politics per se but talks about the time that Giuliani was a prosecutor and used the RICO (anti-racketeering) law to go after an investment firm. In the course of this story, the author gave a bit of biographical background for Giuliani, and it turns out that his father was briefly an enforcer for the mob. Giuliani's uncle was a loan shark, and hired his brother (Giuliani's father) to do collections, which he did (just like on "The Sopranos") with a baseball bat.

Anyway his father did get out of it pretty quickly, and Giuliani himself appears to be very much a straight arrow, and has been ferociously anti-Mafia in his work. But this was a bit of his past that I hadn't known about before -- and I wonder, if he did become a Presidential candidate, if it might be a factor.

brian_igo · #8 03-13-2006, 03:21 PM

Giuliani will have much bigger problems just getting the nomination because he is clearly pro-choice and how he handled his divorce. This is going to be red meat in the primaries, particularly in the early southern contests.

**pippadaisy**[$] · #9 03-13-2006, 05:45 PM

Giuliani wasn't particularly popular in NY before 9/11, either.

**mjfrombuffalo**[$] · #10 03-13-2006, 05:52 PM

Quote:

pippadaisy said

Giuliani wasn't particularly popular in NY before 9/11, either.

HELL NO he wasn't popular.

frazzledspice · #11 03-14-2006, 09:17 AM

Geraldine Ferraro also had problems in her campaign for VP because of her husband's business dealings.

It's an occupational hazard to be an Italian American NY politician, I think....because the media will go over your extended family's background with a fine tooth comb.

If Guiliani were nominated, I'm sure there would be a strong (and well-financed) third party running on the 2008 ballot, and that candidate would pull away lots of votes, probably more from Republicans than Democrats.

erik_kosberg · #12 03-22-2006, 09:55 PM

http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/000159.php

Quote:

I'm not sure what would be worse - if McCain actually was ignorant or just pretending. In either case, it would be yet another page out of the Bush playbook.

My, how the mighty have fallen...

**drmomentum**[$] · #13 03-23-2006, 05:27 PM

BushCain

Sad. To think, I was weighing...

-JP

erik_kosberg · #14 03-28-2006, 07:12 PM

"McCain's transition is complete"

**drmomentum**[$] · #15 03-28-2006, 10:39 PM

I like the old McCain better, too.

wivabef · #16 03-28-2006, 10:48 PM

I mourn for the old John McCain.

I think Daniel Webster is needed to defend his soul.

brian_igo · #17 04-02-2006, 03:49 PM

Don't watch Meet The Press, Elyzabeth.

Quote:

On Iraq, McCain refused to call out the administration on its dangerous incompetence. He stated that Saddam "absolutely" possed a threat before the invasion (regardless of the whole no WMD thing). He admitted mistakes were made, but refused to blame those mistakes on the Commander-in-Chief. On the Iran front, he "applauds" the President's handling of the issue and expressed confidence that the administration will exhaust diplomatic efforts before engaging Iran militarily. This after he said we should learn from our mistakes in Iraq.

(snip)

Perhaps the silliest part of the interview came when McCain was confronted with his vote to extend Bush's disastrous tax cuts. This after he initially voted against them. McCain's explanation for his flip-flop: "I do not believe in tax increases." So, any tax cut should be de facto permanent according to his philosophy. Pure silliness.

I have to commend Russert for confronting McCain about his decision to speak at Liberty University and his acceptance of Jerry Falwell (maybe he does read Daily Kos after all!) Confronted him with an outrageous Falwell quote, Russert asked if McCain is "embracing" Falwell's statements. McCain again gave a non-answer, but he did say he does not believe Falwell is an "agent of intolerance" anymore. In a telling exchange, he said that the "christian right" has a major role to play in the Republican Party.

Ouch. Looks like my first post belongs in my prognostication hall of fame. Too bad.

wivabef · #18 04-02-2006, 08:42 PM

CRRRRRRRYYYYYIIIIINNNNNGGGG

Over you!

CRRRRYYYYYINNNNNGGGG...

**drmomentum**[$] · #19 04-02-2006, 09:01 PM

I saw that interview today. It was just horrible.

Russert made reference to this:

Quote:

On Tuesday, though, he sided with the president on two issues that have made headlines recently: teaching intelligent design in schools and Cindy Sheehan, the grieving mother who has come to personify the anti-war movement. McCain told the Star that, like Bush, he believes "all points of view" should be available to students studying the origins of mankind.

Unless he was being intentionally misleading, and meant that one should be taught as science and the other as social studies or religion, then I can't see how I can ever vote for him.

I feel like a dupe for believing he would have been a viable alternative.

I actually did vote for him here in the primary. Duped, duped, duped.

-JP

wivabef · #20 04-02-2006, 09:28 PM

I can't believe that this is going to help him to win.

realtraveller · #21 04-03-2006, 12:14 PM

McCain is wasting his time buttering up Falwell.

He lost the Republican base with his McCain-Kennedy immigration amnesty bill.

rmthunter · #22 04-03-2006, 01:37 PM

Maybe we should change the title of this thread to "McCain Shows His True Colors."