Superdelegates

[phoenixx]

Interesting article on super delegates and fair play from RawStory. Raw Politics: Superdelegates could be deciding factor - CNN.com

[brian_igo]

Another story the MSM can't get right.

Here's how the super delegates are lining up as of January 30:

• Clinton - 177
• Obama - 75
• Undecided - 544

(Undecided include 30 delegates previously pledged to Edwards and Kucinich.)

Like every other year, the overwhelming majority of super delegates wait for the nomination to be decided in the primaries and then get behind the nominee. The reason is obvious. Most of the super delegates are working Democratic pols and they don't want to get behind the wrong horse. The chances of Clinton being behind in awarded delegates and getting enough super delegates to flip the outcome is statistically zero. The super delegates who haven't lined up behind either yet won't be convinced to throw the nomination against the popular vote.

This is only a story because Clinton's campaign has put it out to support their inevitability meme and stop Obama's momentum.

[realtraveller]

But if Clinton and Obama remain essentially tied in the delegate race by April, as they are now, Howard Dean says that some sort of 'compromise' will have to be made. Read 'compromise' to mean back-room deal. It's a lose/lose situation. The women who support Clinton will feel dissed if the back roomers put Obama at the head of the ticket. Blacks will be disappointed if Clinton is put on top even if Obama is given the V. P. spot. (I don't think Clinton would take the V. P. spot with Obama, too humiliating for the former inevitable candidate). Either way it will be a 'fixed' ticket to many voters.

[erik_kosberg]

Why would Obama want to take the VP post? I can't imagine he'd have any interest in accepting it.

But if it gets down to a near-tie and a brokered convention, of course there will be a back-room deal among the superdelegates. That's what they're there for.

[realtraveller]

erik_kosberg said

Why would Obama want to take the VP post? I can't imagine he'd have any interest in accepting it.

But if it gets down to a near-tie and a brokered convention, of course there will be a back-room deal among the superdelegates. That's what they're there for.

Obama is newer to politics and younger and would be a better fit for the VP post than Hillary. If he is slightly ahead in delegates but the superdelegate/party leaders put Hillary ahead, his supporters would be rightly angry. He would be talked into taking the VP spot 'so as not to divide the party'. It would keep him in the public eye, make him the heir apparent, so I don't see the downside for him.

Hillary on the other hand wouldn't take the VP spot. She would not be looked at as "President in training". She'd be 68 (assuming an 8 year Obama presidency). And as the candidate who had been looked at as the party leader it would be humiliating to be in the VP spot.

The back room deal scenario would split the Democratic Party. Since there's not a dime's worth of difference between the candidates on policy, the voting is coming down to demographics. Hillary wins women and Hispanics. Obama wins blacks and young people. Which demographic can the party least afford to piss off? Women are 55% of the Democratic base. No other group comes close.

If it comes down to back room deals, Hillary will win. Of course this only plays into the meme that the Clintons play dirty politics. How many of the FBI files of the superdelegates did the Clintons read?

It will be an interesting situation. And if it's close there will be a fight as to whether to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates that Hillary 'won'. More back room dealing and scheming.

[erik_kosberg]

Of course this only plays into the meme that the Clintons play dirty politics. How many of the FBI files of the superdelegates did the Clintons read?

Oh puh-leez. The faux meme the the right loves to dream about. As if Republicans have no experience with dirty politics.

[drmomentum[$]]

I expect that we won't actually have an election anyhow. Hillary's opponents are all, very soon, going to start dying of "suicide."

You know it. I know it. And Hillary will become president by running unopposed!

[brian_igo]

I'm going to bookmark this thread for evidence that the whole super delegate crisis is nothing more than wishful thinking by conservatives.