Do I suck at time estimates or what

**pluckyduck** · #1 08-23-2008, 11:49 PM

It is mind boggling.

So, I have been very very quiet here 'cause I'm working on launching a new product line. It's an online only launch and we did a really good job (I must say) of merchandising and putting a very complicated line together in a very straightforward way.

So far so good, yes?

Well, I say, you know what, let me do the final touches and get all of this stuff live. I want it live quickly, don't mind working the extra hours to do it, and this takes so much expertise, I'll just do it myself.

I figure, it'll take me about two days.

Honestly, I have to have recurring and chronic amnesia. Not only wasn't I even close in the number of hours it would take me (I think I'm at well over 150, and not done yet), I have never ever ever been close one time in estimating time on a project like this.

If I were in a job that needed to estimate billable hours, I'd go broke!

Anybody else suck at time estimates? Betcha nobody sucks as badly as I do!

**jgibson2**[$] · #2 08-24-2008, 05:08 AM

I offered to refinish a table for my son and underestimated the time involved by about 20 hours. Amnesia here too. I've done this sort of thing before, so I should have a clue. Oh, that's right. You have too.

Good thing my paying job doesn't involve estimating how much my time is worth.

**pluckyduck** · #3 08-24-2008, 07:16 AM

Quote:

jgibson2 said

I offered to refinish a table for my son and underestimated the time involved by about 20 hours. Amnesia here too. I've done this sort of thing before, so I should have a clue. Oh, that's right. You have too.

Good thing my paying job doesn't involve estimating how much my time is worth.

I tried to refinish a table once. In an afternoon. Had never done it before. It had scrolls. I can't say how far off my time estimate was since when I was probably 4 hours in and didn't have one leg stripped yet, that was the last time I tried to refinish at table. (This was an *end* table. I thought, how long could it take? Look how small it is!)

What gets me on this is, this is hundreds of complex products. When after the first eight hours, I had only 16 live, did I say wow apparently this will take 20 times what I thought it would? No, I thought, wow, I have to get really fast in the next eight hours to have this all done.

26 left. I should have them done in the next 15 minutes or so.

**jgibson2**[$] · #4 08-24-2008, 07:33 AM

I always think I'm going to get faster. Unfortunately that silly saying "The hurrieder I go, the behinder I get" is really true. Try to speed things up too much and you make mistakes that cost you BIG in terms of time.

**pluckyduck** · #5 08-24-2008, 05:48 PM

Quote:

jgibson2 said

I always think I'm going to get faster. Unfortunately that silly saying "The hurrieder I go, the behinder I get" is really true. Try to speed things up too much and you make mistakes that cost you BIG in terms of time.

OMG, I have two left and now my web server is acting up and keeps kicking me out of the admin. This close!

Yes I did just spend five minutes looking through the huge smilie list here to find the most appropriate.

Back to the actual point of the thread - I'm pretty decent at project management, estimating and coordinating the work of other people pretty accurately. But when it comes to me, I apparently think I possess some super human abilities which I ........

so don't!

Meanwhile, I suppose I should go check my websites to make sure they can take orders since they can't take products right now.

I want a nap.